Inflation figures in February were below expectations. The CPI rose 0.5% per month (consensus: 0.7%) and the annual rate reached 1.1%, the highest value in a year. According to National Bank of Canada analyst Kyle Dahs, inflation should pick up due to the positive base effect.
Important Quotes:
“February’s CPI report was weaker than expected. While annual headline inflation is expensive, it has reached its highest rate in a year in recent months thanks to a sharp rise in gasoline prices.”
“The main measures of inflation remained on track through the month. Canada’s three major banks remained the preferred main measures of inflation at an average of%.”
“We believe that inflation may intensify early next month due to positive base effect. That’s not all: General government aid programs, which should persist until normalcy is restored, will maintain artificial labor shortage . Commodity prices, including. Groceries (a cart heavyweight) have also risen sharply, which could also hurt the purchasing power of Canadian consumers in the coming months. “
“Supply chain disruptions that are currently driving up inflation may persist for some time and offset other downward forces. In that context, we see inflation at around 2.6% in Q4 2021.”
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