How COVID-19 can become a childhood disease

Over the next few years, as the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus spreads to a lesser extent in the world’s population, Covid-19 will likely behave like other cold coronaviruses and especially infect children who have not yet been exposed to the virus. Has not happened and those who have not. are vaccinated.

Researchers at the University of Oslo used a mathematical model to study what the disease burden from COVID-19 would look like in eleven different countries over the next one, ten and twenty years. The results suggest that young children are more likely to become ill in the future, while adults are immune from vaccination or live infection. The results of the study have been published in the journal “Science Advances”.

The scientists found that in addition to the duration of immunity, which we do not yet know enough about, how COVID-19 will behave in the future also depends to a large extent on the age structure and dynamics of the population. With a long-term immunity of ten years, the model predicts that the highest infection rates will be in young people. However, this prediction only applies if the transition to a new one is easy.

The situation is different if immunity to a new infection declines more rapidly. Again, while there is some protection against a severe course, there is the potential for recurrent outbreaks. Study leader Otar N. Björnstad explained: “Research results suggest that vaccination provides stronger protection than infection with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, so we encourage everyone to get vaccinated as soon as possible.”

They: DOI 10.1126/sciadv.abf9040