Researchers are evaluating summer data from 1950

An unusual heat wave has been plaguing people in India and Pakistan for weeks. Much has been told about it – according to researchers, however, some of the similarly severe heat waves of the past few decades have gone unnoticed. The likely reason is that the extremes occurred in poorer countries or areas with less available data, They write in the journal Science Advances,

temperature deviations from the mean are significant

Climate scientist Vicky Thompson explained, “It is important to assess heatwave severity based on local temperature variability, as both humans and natural ecosystems adapt to it, so in areas of low variability, a small absolute extreme has a large impact.” Maybe.” , His team from the University of Bristol analyzed heat waves from 1950 to 2021.

Deviations from the mean fluctuations in daily maximum temperatures over the past decade were calculated in each case. The summer of 2021 set a record high heat wave in western North America: on June 29, Canada’s highest was 49.6 degrees in the city of Lytton, British Columbia. The previous record high since 1950 was more than 4.6 degrees. With hundreds of victims, the heat wave was the deadliest weather event ever to hit Canada. Forest fires would have damaged extensive infrastructure and destroyed crops.

According to the analysis, the three most severe heat waves worldwide – relative to normal deviations over the respective periods of the year – occurred in Southeast Asia in April 1998, Brazil in November 1985, and the southern United States in July 1980. The 2003 heat wave, on the other hand, is counted according to the selected method of calculation, not for extreme events.

Heat waves likely to continue to increase in intensity

In general, scientists emphasize that this is not a definitive list of the most extreme events. Even small changes in methodology, such as temporary resolution or fieldwork, can change the events identified or their sequence.

Using climate model projections, the scientists drew conclusions about evolution over the course of the century. The analysis therefore confirms the prediction that the intensity of heat waves will increase with the increase in global temperature. Thompson’s team warns that areas that have not experienced an extreme heat wave recently may be less prepared for potentially upcoming events. This applies, for example, to Australia and parts of Central Africa.

It should also be kept in mind that the effect of heat in cities is increasing. Since, according to forecasts, about 70 percent of the world’s population will live in cities by 2050, there will also be an increased risk of extreme heat events.