An abandoned SpaceX rocket stage is on a collision course with the Moon. When the effect is imminent.

Frankfurt – If a rocket is launched into space, it’s usually no longer interesting after a few minutes – after all, it’s just a transporter and it has served its purpose: a space travel– Missions on your way. At SpaceX, the private space company of billionaire Elon Musk, the rocket’s first stage after launch is still relevant: it usually takes off on an autonomous ship or land and is ready for the next rocket launch. But for the second rocket stage, the adage “out of sight, out of mind” usually applies.

No wonder: the second rocket stage is usually caused by an accidental burn up in Earth’s atmosphere. But a rocket stage launched by SpaceX in 2015 is suddenly gaining attention again. In February 2015, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket carried NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite into space. It was the first SpaceX interplanetary rocket launch to carry its cargo out of Earth orbit. As the NOAA satellite began its journey known as the Lagrange point, more than one million kilometers from Earth, the rocket’s second stage ran out of fuel to propel it into Earth’s atmosphere to burn. And it also lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth and the Moon.

SpaceX rocket stage on collision course with Moon

And so it is that a SpaceX rocket stage has been falling into a chaotic orbit through the Earth-Moon system since February 2015. But the object’s fate is now clearly sealed: A new calculation suggests that the orbit puts the abandoned object on a collision course with the Moon. Bill Gray, who developed software used by professional and amateur astronomers around the world to observe near-Earth objects, asteroids and comets, expects a SpaceX rocket to hit the Moon in early March.

Because the rocket stage appears to wobble in its orbit, Gray called off observations a while back to get more data. Using this new data, Gray expects the Falcon 9 rocket stage to hit the far side of the Moon near the equator on March 4, 2022. However, there are still uncertainties as “space junk can be a bit tricky”, As Gray writes on his website, Gray explains that how sunlight affects the object is “difficult to predict completely.” “The unexpected effects are very small, but they will add up between now and March 4th,” the researcher continues.

SpaceX rocket stage to hit the moon in March 2022

Gray wants to predict the impact of rockets on the Moon as accurately as possible to enable research into the effect. The lunar orbiter “Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter” (LRO) from NASA and “Chandrayaan-2” from India can find the resulting crater on the lunar surface and perhaps even observe the impact. As of now, Gray fears his prediction may be off by several minutes, with further comments expected in February that could reduce uncertainty.

Space travel: SpaceX rocket stage likely to leave impact crater on Moon

If a SpaceX rocket stage does hit the Moon, Gray believes it will be the first accidental impact of space debris on the Moon. In October 2009, the US space agency NASA intentionally launched the Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) spacecraft to gain scientific knowledge of the impact on the Moon. The impact of the upcoming rocket stage on the Moon is “essentially a free LCROSS,” writes Gray. However, you probably won’t see the impact, as it’s likely to be behind the Moon.

“If we can tell the LRO and Chandrayaan people where the crater is, they can see a very fresh impact crater at that location and potentially learn about the geology of this part of the Moon,” Gray conjectures. Put it. After all, we know the mass of an empty Falcon 9 second stage – four tons – and the speed at which it will hit – 2.58 km/s (about 9300 km/h). (tab)